The most common reaction I’ve had over the last few weeks when management have been asked to come up with a plan is: What’s the use? Who knows how things will play out?
In fact, taking control of the situation in the midst of uncertainty is possible.
The answer is to put a plan together for the worst case, best case and most-likely scenarios.
For example, here in NZ, the main uncertainty factors were:
- Movement of people
- Movement of freight
- Gatherings of people within New Zealand
- What is classified as an essential service
- Whether an effective vaccine or treatment can be developed.
A best case scenario back in mid-March 2020 might look like:
L4 Lockdown might go for 8 weeks. L1 after 16 weeks. 18 months to develop an effective vaccine and /or effective treatment. International travel will require mandatory two week quarantine or self-isolation at each border for 18 months. Supply chains will be delayed for 8 weeks as factories closed all over the world.
A worst case scenario in mid-March 2020 might look like:
L4 Lockdown for 16 weeks. L1 after 32 weeks. An effective vaccine and/or treatment is never developed. International travel will require mandatory two week quarantine or self-isolation at each border for 36 months. International movement of goods not disrupted. Supply chains will be delayed by 16 weeks as factories all over the world closed.
Most likely case scenario back in mid-March 2020 might look like:
L4 Lockdown for 10 weeks. L1 after 20 weeks. An effective vaccine and/or treatment is developed 36 months. International travel will require mandatory two week quarantine or self-isolation on arrival in any country for 24 months. International movement of goods not disrupted. Supply chains will be delayed by 12 weeks as factories all over the world closed.
The impact of each of these scenarios will differ depending on the nature of your business, organisation and industry.
Post-lockdown what are the key factors that will affect your business?
International travel restrictions will continue to impact any business that relies on international travellers. Given the above scenarios, some businesses are going to have to either find alternative revenues, reduce overheads and perhaps even put their businesses into hibernation, and hope to resurrect them again as international travel resumes.
Businesses starved of revenue will struggle to pay their rent, staff and suppliers. Some businesses will be caught short at both ends, with suppliers demanding payment and customers being slow to pay or even defaulting on their payments.
It can all seem overwhelming.
We can help with the heavy lifting:
- Putting a plan together
- Negotiating with landlords, suppliers and customers
- Tracking cash flow
- Arranging finance
Government assistance can be provided to fund these services.
The faster you have a sense of what to do, the quicker the uncertainty goes away.
